Abstract
Epidemiology is the science that focuses on the occurrence of disease in its broadest sense, with the fundamental aim to understand and to control its causes. This chapter deals with the conceptual building blocks of epidemiology. First we offer a model for causation, from which a variety of insights relevant to epidemiologic understanding emerge. We then discuss the basis by which we attempt to infer that an identified factor is indeed a cause of disease; the guidelines lead us through a rapid review of modern scientific philosophy. The remainder of the chapter deals with epidemiologic fundamentals of measurement, including the measurement of disease and the measurement of causal effects.
This chapter is adapted from Rothman KJ and Greenland S (eds) (1998) Modern epidemiology, 2nd edn. Lippinroth Williams Wilkins & Publishers, Philadelphia
Access this chapter
Tax calculation will be finalised at checkout
Purchases are for personal use only
Preview
Unable to display preview. Download preview PDF.
References
Alho JM (1992) On prevalence, incidence and duration in stable populations. Biometrics 48:578–592
Bayes T (1763) Essay towards solving a problem in the doctrine of chances. Philosophical Transactions of the Royal Society 53:370–418
Brenner H (1993) Bias due to non-differential misclassification of polytomous confounders. J Clin Epidemiol 46:57–63
Caldwell GG, Kelley DB, Heath Jr CW (1980) Leukemia among participants in military maneuvers at a nuclear bomb test: A preliminary report. JAMA 244:1575–1578
Chavance M, Dellatolas G, Lellouch J (1992) Correlated nondifferential misclassifications of disease and exposure. Int J Epidemiol 21:537–546
Cole P, MacMahon B (1971) Attributable risk percent in case-control studies. Br J Prev Soc Med. 25:242–244
Copeland KT, Checkoway H, Holbrook RH, McMichael AJ (1977) Bias due to misclassification in the estimate of relative risk. Am J Epidemiol 105:488–495
Cornfield J (1976) Recent methodological contributions to clinical trials. Am J Epidemiol 104:408–424
Criqui MH, Austin M, Barrett-Connor E (1979) The effect of non-response on risk ratios in a cardiovascular disease study. J Chron Dis 32:633–638
DeFinetti B (1937) Foresight: its logical laws, its subjective sources. Reprinted in: Kyburg HE, Smokler HE (eds) Studies in subjective probability. Wiley, New York, 1964
Deubner DC, Wilkinson WE, Helms MJ, Tyroler HA, Hanes CG (1980) Logistic model estimation of death attributable to risk factors for cardiovascular disease in Evans County, Georgia. Am J Epidemiol 112:135–143
Doll R, Peto R (1981) The causes of cancer. Oxford University Press, New York
Dosemeci M, Wacholder S, Lubin J (1990) Does nondifferential misclassification of exposure always bias a true effect toward the null value? Am J Epidemiol 132:746–749
Felarca LC, Wardell DM, Rowles B (1981) Vaginal spermicides and congenital disorders. JAMA 246:2677
Flegal KM, Keyl PM, Nieto FJ (1991) Differential misclassification arising from nondifferential errors in exposure measurement. Am J Epidemiol 134:1233–1244
Fox AJ, Collier PF (1976) Low mortality rates in industrial cohort studies due to selection for work and survival in the industry. Br J Prev Soc Med 30:225–230
Fraiberg S (1959) The magic years. Scribner’s, New York
Greenland S (1980) The effect of misclassification in the presence of covariates. Am J Epidemiol 112:564–569
Greenland S (1987) Interpretation and choice of effect measures in epidemiologic analysis. Am J Epidemiol 125:761–768
Greenland S, Brumback BA (2002) An overview of relations among causal modelling methods. International Journal of Epidemiology 31:1030–1037
Greenland S, Robins JM (1986) Identifiability, exchangeability and epidemiological confounding. Int J Epidemiol 15:413–419
Greenland S, Robins JM (1988) Conceptual problems in the definition and interpretation of attributable fractions. Am J Epidemiol 128:1185–1197
Greenland S, Robins JM, Pearl J (1999) Confounding and collapsibility in causal inference. Statistical Science 14:19–46
Greenland S, Robins JM (2000) Epidemiology, justice, and the probability of causation. Jurimetrics 40:321–340
Gullen WH, Berman JE, Johnson EA (1968) Effects of misclassification in epidemiologic studies. Public Health Rep 53:1956–1965
Hill AB (1965) The environment and disease: Association or causation? Proc R Soc Med 58:295–300
Horwitz RI, Feinstein AR (1978) Alternative analytic methods for case-control studies of estrogens and endometrial cancer. N Engl J Med 299:1089–1094
Howson C, Urbach P (1993) Scientific reasoning: The Bayesian approach, 2nd edn. Open Court, LaSalle, Illinois
Jick H, Walker AM, Rothman KJ, Hunter JR, Holmes LB, Watkins RN, D’Ewart DC, Danford A, Madsen S (1981a) Vaginal spermicides and congenital disorders. JAMA 245:1329–1332
Jick H, Walker AM, Rothman KJ, et al. (1981b) Vaginal spermicides and congenital disorders (letter). JAMA 246:2677–2678
Kahnemann D, Slovic P, Tversky A (1982) Judgment under uncertainty; heuristics and biases. Cambridge University Press, New York
Keiding N (1991) Age-specific incidence and prevalence: a statistical perspective. J Royal Statist Soc A 154:371–412
Keys A, Kihlberg JK (1963) The effect of misclassification on the estimated relative prevalence of a characteristic. Am J Public Health 53:1656–1665
Klemetti A, Saxen L (1967) Prospective versus retrospective approach in the search for environmental causes of malformations. Am J Public Health 57:2071–2075
Kristensen P (1992) Bias from nondifferential but dependent misclassification of exposure and outcome. Epidemiology 3:210–215
Lanes SF, Poole C (1984) “Truth in packaging?” The unwrapping of epidemiologic research. J Occup Med 26:571–574
Levin ML (1953) The occurrence of lung cancer in man. Acta Unio Int Contra Cancrum 9:531–541
Lewis D (1973) Causation. J Philos 70:556–567 (Reprinted with postscript in: Lewis D (1986) Philosophical papers. Oxford, New York)
Maclure M (1985) Popperian refutation in epidemiology. Am J Epidemiol 121:343–350
MacMahon B, Pugh TF (1970) Epidemiology: Principles and methods. Little, Brown and Co., Boston, pp 137–198, 175–184
Magee B (1985) Philosophy and the real world. An introduction to Karl Popper. Open Court, La Salle, Illinois
Marshall JR, Hastrup JL (1996) Mismeasurement and the resonance of strong confounders: Uncorrelated errors. Am J Epidemiol 143:1069–1078
McMichael AJ (1976) Standardized mortality ratios and the “healthy worker effect”: Scratching beneath the surface. J Occup Med 18:165–168
Medawar PB (1979) Advice to a young scientist. Basic Books, New York
Miettinen OS, Cook EF (1981) Confounding: essence and detection. Am J Epidemiol 114:593–603
Miettinen OS (1976) Estimability and estimation in case-referent studies. Am J Epidemiol 103:226–235
Mill JS (1843) A system of logic, ratiocinative and inductive, 5th edn. Parker, Son and Bowin, London
Morgenstern H, Bursic ES (1982) A method for using epidemiologic data to estimate the potential impact of an intervention on the health status of a target population. J Comm Health 7:292–309
Morrison AS (1979) Sequential pathogenic components of rates. Am J Epidemiol 109:709–718
Morrison AS, Buring JE, Verhoek WG, Aoki K, Leck I, Ohno Y, Obata K (1982) Coffee drinking and cancer of the lower urinary tract. J Nat Cancer Inst 68:91–94
Newell DJ (1962) Errors in interpretation of errors in epidemiology. Am J Public Health 52:1925–1928
Oakley G Jr (1982) Spermicides and birth defects. JAMA 247:2405
Ouellet BL, Ræmeder J-M, Lance J-M (1979) Premature mortality attributable to smoking and hazardous drinking in Canada. Am J Epidemiol 109:451–463
Peacock PB (1971) The non-comparability of relative risks from different studies. Biometrics 27:903–907
Pearl J (2000) Causality. Cambridge University Press, Cambridge
Platt JR (1964) Strong inference. Science 146:347–353
Popper KR (1968) The logic of scientific discovery. Harper & Row, New York
Preston SH (1987) Relations among standard epidemiologic measures in a population. Am J Epidemiol 126:336–345
Ramsey FP (1931) Truth and probability. Reprinted in: Kyburg HE, Smokler HE (eds) Studies in subjective probability. Wiley, New York, 1964
Rothman KJ (1976) Causes. Am J Epidemiol 104:587–592
Rothman KJ (1981) Induction and latent periods. Am J Epidemiol 114:253–259
Rothman KJ (ed) (1988) Causal inference. Epidemiology Resources, Inc., Boston
Rubin DB (1990) Comment: Neyman (1923) and causal inference in experiments and observational studies. Stat Science 5:472–480
Sackett DL (1979) Bias in analytic research. J Chron Dis 32:51–63
Sartwell PE, Masi AT, Arthes FG, Greene GR, Smith HE (1969) Thromboembolism and oral contraceptives: An epidemiologic case-control study. Am J Epidemiol 90:365–380
Smithells RW, Shepard S (1978) Teratogenicity testing in humans: a method demonstrating the safety of Bendectin. Teratology 17:31–36
Susser M (1991) What is a cause and how do we know one? Agrammar for pragmatic epidemiology. Am J Epidemiol 133:635–648
Taubes G (1993) Bad science. The short life and weird times of cold fusion. Random House, New York
U.S. Department of Health, Education and Welfare. Smoking and Health (1964) Report of the Advisory Committee to the Surgeon General of the Public Health Service. Public Health Service Publication No. 1103. Government Printing Office, Washington, D.C.
Wacholder S (1991) Practical considerations in choosing between the case-cohort and nested case-control design. Epidemiol 2:155–158
Walker AM, Blettner M (1985) Comparing imperfect measures of exposure. Am J Epidemiol 121:783–790
Walter SD (1976) The estimation and interpretation of attributable risk in health research. Biometrics 32:829–849
Wang J, Miettinen OS (1982) Occupational mortality studies: principles of validity. Scand J Work Environ Health 8:153–158
Weed D (1986) On the logic of causal inference. Am J Epidemiol 123:965–979
Author information
Authors and Affiliations
Editor information
Editors and Affiliations
Rights and permissions
Copyright information
© 2005 Springer-Verlag Berlin Heidelberg
About this chapter
Cite this chapter
Rothman, K.J., Greenland, S. (2005). Basic Concepts. In: Ahrens, W., Pigeot, I. (eds) Handbook of Epidemiology. Springer, Berlin, Heidelberg. https://doi.org/10.1007/978-3-540-26577-1_2
Download citation
DOI: https://doi.org/10.1007/978-3-540-26577-1_2
Publisher Name: Springer, Berlin, Heidelberg
Print ISBN: 978-3-540-00566-7
Online ISBN: 978-3-540-26577-1
eBook Packages: Mathematics and StatisticsMathematics and Statistics (R0)