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A Wish Come True? A Longitudinal Analysis of the Relationship between Retirement Preferences and the Timing of Retirement

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Abstract

This study examines the relationship between retirement preferences, expressed as preferred retirement age, and actual retirement age in Sweden. The data were drawn from the Swedish Panel Survey of Ageing and the Elderly (PSAE). The PSAE was fielded in 2002 and 2003 with the aim of mapping living conditions of older people in Sweden. The data, which have a powerful longitudinal component, cover a broad spectrum of welfare indicators such as health, daily activities, social interactions, labour market and working conditions, and attitudes towards and experiences of retirement. Cox regression analysis was employed to explore whether and to what extent retirement preferences had any impact on actual retirement age. The results imply that retirement preferences do represent, in relation to other known key factors, an isolated influence on retirement patterns. The introduction of time-dependent variables strengthened this argument by showing how the “hazard” for the timing of retirement varied during the study period: those who preferred to retire close the end point of the study period were more likely to retire at this time than those who preferred to retire after the end of the study period and those who preferred to retire at the beginning of the study period. The results also indicated that the categories that wished to retire close to the beginning of the study period were more likely to retire at this point of time. The study thus provides empirical support for those researchers, debaters and policymakers who have addressed the importance of changing preferences towards later retirement in order to prolong working life.

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Notes

  1. What is regarded as early varies between countries and branches but in this study early means to retire before the age of 65, a widely accepted social norm for retirement in Sweden (Stattin 2008).

  2. The importance of gender differences is debated (Barnes-Farrell 2003; Dahl et al. 2002). On the one hand, women’s heavier burden in the reproductive sphere has a negative effect on their ability to work full-time and to accumulate sufficient work hours to gain full pension and this should create incentives for a longer work life. However, this effect might be mitigated for women who are part of a household with shared incomes. On the other hand, the fact that women in general are married to men who are older should prefer earlier retirement then men generally do in order to retire at the same time as their spouse (Henretta 2008).

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Authors and Affiliations

  1. Department of Sociology, Umeå University, 90187, Umeå, Sweden

    Johan Örestig, Mattias Strandh & Mikael Stattin

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  1. Johan Örestig
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  2. Mattias Strandh
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  3. Mikael Stattin
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Correspondence to Johan Örestig.

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Örestig, J., Strandh, M. & Stattin, M. A Wish Come True? A Longitudinal Analysis of the Relationship between Retirement Preferences and the Timing of Retirement. Population Ageing 6, 99–118 (2013). https://doi.org/10.1007/s12062-012-9075-7

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