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Air temperature and the incidence of fall-related hip fracture hospitalisations in older people

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Abstract

Summary

Observation-driven Poisson regression models were used to investigate mean daily air temperature and fall-related hip fracture hospitalisations. After adjustment for season, day-of-week effects, long-term trend and autocorrelation, hip fracture rates are higher in both males and females aged 75+ years when there is a lower air temperature.

Introduction

This study investigated whether there was an association between fall-related hip fracture hospitalisations and air temperature at a day-to-day level, after accounting for seasonal trend and autocorrelation.

Methods

Observation-driven Poisson regression models were used to investigate mean daily air temperature and fall-related hip fracture hospitalisations for the period 1 July 1998 to 31 December 2004, inclusive, in the Sydney region of New South Wales, Australia, which has a population of 4 million people.

Results

Lower daily air temperature was significantly associated with higher fall-related hip fracture hospitalisations in 75+-year-olds: men aged 75–84 years, rate ratio (RR) for a 1°C increase in temperature of 0.98 with 95% confidence interval (0.96, 0.99), men 85+ years RR = 0.98 (0.96, 1.00), women 75–84 years RR = 0.99 (0.98, 1.00), women 85+ years RR = 0.98 (0.97, 0.99). Moreover, there were fewer hospitalisations on weekends compared to weekdays ranging from RR = 0.81 (0.73, 0.90) in women aged 65–74 years to RR = 0.89 (0.80, 0.98) in men aged 85+ years.

Conclusions

After adjustment for season, day-of-week effects, long-term trend and autocorrelation, fall-related hip fracture hospitalisation rates are higher in both males and females aged 75+ years when there is a lower air temperature.

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Acknowledgements

Robin Turner was employed as part of the New South Wales Biostatistical Officer Training Program funded by the New South Wales Department of Health while undertaking this work based at the New South Wales Injury Risk Management Research Centre. Caroline Finch was supported by a National Health and Medical Research Council Principal Research Fellowship.

Conflict of interest

None.

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Authors and Affiliations

  1. NSW Injury Risk Research Management Centre, University of New South Wales, Sydney, Australia

    R. M. Turner, A. Hayen & C. F. Finch

  2. Screening and Test Evaluation Program, School of Public Health, University of Sydney, Sydney, Australia

    R. M. Turner & A. Hayen

  3. School of Mathematics and Statistics, University of New South Wales, Sydney, Australia

    W. T. M. Dunsmuir

  4. School of Human Movement & Sport Sciences, University of Ballarat, P.O. Box 663, Ballarat, Victoria, 3353, Australia

    C. F. Finch

Authors
  1. R. M. Turner
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  2. A. Hayen
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  3. W. T. M. Dunsmuir
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  4. C. F. Finch
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Corresponding author

Correspondence to C. F. Finch.

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Turner, R.M., Hayen, A., Dunsmuir, W.T.M. et al. Air temperature and the incidence of fall-related hip fracture hospitalisations in older people. Osteoporos Int 22, 1183–1189 (2011). https://doi.org/10.1007/s00198-010-1306-2

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  • DOI: https://doi.org/10.1007/s00198-010-1306-2

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