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Hip fracture incidence 2003–2013 and projected cases until 2050 in Austria: a population-based study

  • Original Article
  • Published:
International Journal of Public Health

Abstract

Objectives

Elevated hip fracture incidence is a major public health problem looming to aggravate in industrialized countries due to demographic developments. We report hip fracture incidence and expected future cases from Vorarlberg, the westernmost province of Austria, results potentially representative of Central European populations.

Methods

Crude and standardized hip fracture incidence rates in Vorarlberg 2003–2013 are reported. Based on the age-specific incidence in 2013 or trends 2003–2013, we predict hip fractures till 2050.

Results

Female age-standardized hip fracture incidence decreased 2005–2013, whereas for men, the trend was rather unclear. Uncorrected forecasts indicate that by 2050, female and male cases will each have more than doubled from 2015 in all demographic core scenarios. Corrected by incidence trends before 2013, cases are expected to drop among women but rise among men.

Conclusions

We anticipate rising hip fracture numbers in Vorarlberg within the next decades, unless prevention programs that presumably account for decreasing incidence rates, particularly among women since 2005, take further effect to counteract the predicted steady increase due to demographic changes. Concomitantly, augmented endeavors to target the male population by these programs are needed.

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Acknowledgments

We thank all physicians and participants in the Vorarlberg Health Monitoring and Prevention Program (VHM&PP) for completing the study examinations and providing data. The VHM&PP is supported by the State of Vorarlberg, Austria. We thank Markus Wallner, Christian Bernhard, and Gabriela Dür from the Vorarlberg State Government, and Hans-Peter Dimai for valuable advice.

Author information

Authors and Affiliations

  1. Agency for Preventive and Social Medicine, Bregenz, Austria

    Hans Concin, Elmar Stimpfl, Ursula Waheed-Hutter & Gabriele Nagel

  2. Ludwig Boltzmann Institute of Osteology at the Hanusch Hospital of the Vienna Health Insurance Fund (WGKK) and Trauma Center Meidling of the Austrian Workers’ Compensation Board (AUVA), 1st Medical Department, Hanusch Hospital, Vienna, Austria

    Wolfgang Brozek & Elisabeth Zwettler

  3. Department of Trauma Surgery, Landeskrankenhaus Feldkirch, Feldkirch, Austria

    Karl-Peter Benedetto

  4. Department of Trauma Surgery, Landeskrankenhaus Bregenz, Bregenz, Austria

    Hartmut Häfele & Joachim Kopf

  5. Department of Trauma Surgery, Landeskrankenhaus Hohenems, Hohenems, Austria

    Hartmut Häfele

  6. Department of Trauma Surgery, Landeskrankenhaus Bludenz, Bludenz, Austria

    Thomas Bärenzung

  7. Department of Trauma Surgery, Krankenhaus Dornbirn, Dornbirn, Austria

    Richard Schnetzer

  8. Sanatorium Schruns, Schruns, Austria

    Christian Schenk

  9. Department of Medical Statistics, Informatics and Health Economics, Innsbruck Medical University, Innsbruck, Austria

    Hanno Ulmer

  10. Department of Clinical Gerontology, Robert-Bosch-Hospital, Stuttgart, Germany

    Kilian Rapp

  11. Institute of Epidemiology and Medical Biometry, Ulm University, Ulm, Germany

    Kilian Rapp & Gabriele Nagel

Authors
  1. Hans Concin
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  2. Wolfgang Brozek
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  3. Karl-Peter Benedetto
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  4. Hartmut Häfele
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  5. Joachim Kopf
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  6. Thomas Bärenzung
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  7. Richard Schnetzer
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  8. Christian Schenk
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  9. Elmar Stimpfl
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  10. Ursula Waheed-Hutter
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  11. Hanno Ulmer
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  12. Kilian Rapp
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  13. Elisabeth Zwettler
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  14. Gabriele Nagel
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Corresponding author

Correspondence to Wolfgang Brozek.

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Conflict of interest

None of the authors declare conflicts of interest.

Ethical standards

The study was performed according to the Declaration of Helsinki in compliance with Austrian law.

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Concin, H., Brozek, W., Benedetto, KP. et al. Hip fracture incidence 2003–2013 and projected cases until 2050 in Austria: a population-based study. Int J Public Health 61, 1021–1030 (2016). https://doi.org/10.1007/s00038-016-0878-9

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  • DOI: https://doi.org/10.1007/s00038-016-0878-9

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